‘Most people are going to get covid’: A momentous warning at a Senate hearing

1 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 00:58:57ID: s2m4fl
‘Most people are going to get covid’: A momentous warning at a Senate hearing
2 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 02:51:59ID: hsfr7n4

I bet that's reassuring to hear for the immunocompromised folks.

ID: hsg2sgn

Certainly not, and the story is being echoed throughout the world, not just in the USA.

ID: hsgeft4
5 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 01:35:29ID: hsfgone

And this paper below explains how and why this is likely to happen and why SARS-C0V-2 will become the next endemic coronavirus.

Transition to endemicity: Understanding COVID-19

ID: hsfnyll

Good paper and it was written in Sept/Oct before Omicron.

One main caveat is virus evolution, if no new variant emerges we are all golden.

6 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 08:52:36ID: hsgrzag

Triple vaxed kid vaxed always were mask but i’m living my life

7 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 03:56:55ID: hsfzos0

You know your risk level. Stay resolute.

8 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 01:03:01ID: hsfce50
ID: hsfg04v

That would be the IFR then. With omicron it’s undoubtedly less than 1%.

The disease was bad enough that the majority of lockdowns and other restrictions made sense and saved millions, but fortunately the latest variant is not as lethal to the individual.

ID: hsfe83v

Colorado's CFR was around 1.0-1.4% in November. As of January it's somewhere around 0.2-0.3%. We don't know exactly how much cases are undercounted versus infections (I've seen estimates in the 2-5 fold range). At least 95% of our cases are now Omicron (versus Delta back in November).

Assuming a 0.1% IFR with a 100% nationwide attack rate would be 333,000 deaths. The numbers still get big even for a minor disease when you have enough infections.

ID: hsfgp6b

I don't know why you're getting downvoted. Smallpox had a fatality rate of 30%. The Spanish Flu had a cfr somewhere from 2 to 4%. SARS 1 had a fatality rate of 9.5%.

It's bad right now, but we got lucky COVID isn't much worse. Maybe this will serve as a wakeup call that'll help prevent the next pandemic, which could be caused by something far nastier. Though, given the past 2 years, I doubt that'll happen.

ID: hsg17hi

Yes, that's possible IF AND ONLY IF the great majority of cases aren't being reported. I've relied on the Johns Hopkins tracker for reliable (with some caveats) numbers since the beginning of the pandemic. Here's the dividing point for the USA: Reported cases 6 days ago 58,129,189. Today 62,727,044. Difference 4,597, 885. Official case fatality rate 6 days ago 1.4%. As of today 1.3%. To bring the CFR down from the official 1.3% to the dividing point of 1.0% there would have to have been 17,296,805 cases rather than 4,597,885, 79% of them unreported and only 21% reported.

That's the hard number line to reach 1%. Anything more is gravy. It is possible, but how probable is anyone's guess. I don't know, but I do know two things beyond a reasonable doubt in terms of how lethal omicron is or is not. One is that nobody else knows either because (two) nobody can know at this time. It is far too early to say with any certainty. I also believe it is less lethal as per reports from most (not all) countries, but I have no idea of how much.

Be that as it may if omicron is less lethal then one should expect to see a decline in the CFR over time, and luckily that seems to be the case in all except two of the small sample I looked at. I leave the two outliers for last. Here's some numbers: World then 1.8, now 1.7, USA then 1.4, now 1.3, Germany then 1.5, now 1.4, Canada then 1.3, now 1.1, Italy then 2.0, now 1.7. There is a trend towards decrease, small now but likely, in my opinion, to be better as time passes.

The two outliers are Russia, no change 3.0, and the UK then 1.0, now also 1.0. As to the first, throughout the past two years Russia has never had numbers that were reliable. The numbers are more indicative of what the government 'wants' to say than what is really happening.

The UK is a really strange bird. I first thought that I'd made a mistake so I redid the calculations. The answer is that they have decreased but minimally compared to other countries (1.06% to 1.01%), so the trend is there, just not as visible.

In 3 to 4 weeks there will be enough cases flowing under the bridge, sinking or not, that something more accurate can be said, but there will still be an error factor. Who knows how big. We won't be able to say, for instance, that omicron is only 30% as lethal as delta. Rather we might be able to say it is 20 to 40%, 10 to 50 % and so on.

ID: hsfe2m0


ID: hsg9vzd

1% is high! If “everyone” (say 200 million people in the US) is going to get it, the CFR needs to be A LOT lower than 1%. Even with Delta, given a 50% vaccination rate, the CFR should be 0.2-0.4% given that vaccination reduces deaths by ~90%.

ID: hsgxmrf

Your post or comment has been removed because

If you believe we made a mistake, please


ID: hsgphzk

Covid would have been much more lethal if it was a disease of old. Bad nutrition, no social distancing, no ventilators, no supplemental oxygen. We're very lucky we live today, where we can mitigate the severity of diseases like this!