Omicron has a 91% lower chance of death than delta variant of COVID-19: study

1 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 04:46:31ID: s2qtiy
Omicron has a 91% lower chance of death than delta variant of COVID-19: study
3 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 16:20:30ID: hsi3qvp

I currently have it, and it's NOT JUST LIKE A COLD for me. Vaxxed and boosted. Been sick for 7 days already. Pretty healthy guy, heavy exerciser. Will drop my symptoms for those of you who might be going through the same garbage.

Severe Congestion

Very sore throat first days

Massive sleep disruptions, often through hallucinogenic dreams and sleep paralysis last night

Recent night sweats

Recent severe constipation

Random body pains, stomach pains, joint pain

Brain fog, especially early on

Infection was initially just upper respiratory, but is now dropping into the lungs, deep coughing with lots of phlegm

Surprising lack of fever for the most part.

This shit sucks so bad.

ID: hsif04g

Do you know if you have Omicron or Delta? You can still catch Delta in some areas.

ID: hsih7yk

That sounds a lot like what I had, just substitute the constipation and phlegm with fever. First time i had it in March it lasted 4 weeks. I got back on track with my training and got it fkn again in October, for 5 weeks. That really messed me up, I'm still recovering.

ID: hsii80f

Thanks for the details.

I had the original strain prior to vaccines being released and it is very interesting how your progression is different.

Mine started with a fever, chills and body aches for a few days. It then progressed into a bad cold with bad cough.

Then the brain fog and fatigue onset. The cold symptoms cleared after a few days, the cough lingered and the brain fog/fatigue lingered for like two weeks (I started to work again for half days).

4 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 04:48:29ID: hsg5vni

It's nice to know that but I still don't want any part of it.

ID: hsgq8fd

Agreed. Getting through this pandemic having never having COVID is still my end goal.

ID: hsgb2g3

I currently have it, it's just like having a cold. Of course I have been vaccinated, and boosted.

ID: hsh8cgg

I’m currently going through it. I also had alpha and I’m double jabbed. Omicron is less than a mild allergy, at least for me.

ID: hsi6whe

I had a rough time with COVID this last week, even though I fit the profile of someone that should not have. You just never know until you get it. I never eat to find out again.

ID: hsguqo6

Ur going to get it eventually. if you talk to people in public even with a mask on, you will most likely get it.

ID: hsgfj3j

Anecdotal I know: but I’m vaxxed and boosted but was just a cold for a few days. It’s not going anywhere so if you’re vaccinated you shouldn’t fear it (unless you’re immune compromised)

ID: hshaw04

Yeah you

.

ID: hshnqxh

Same. Took a look at the long covid subreddit, and that part of having covid sounds hellish.

ID: hshgijd

How about just a little of the mRNA rhar builds its spike proteine, just for immune training purposes? Weird to say that, but I guess biologically the vaccines are a part of the virus.

ID: hshtgx6

bUt eVeRyOne’S GoinG to gEt iT!!!

5 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 05:22:47ID: hsg9ra3

Sounds good

ID: hsgybzz

Yes, except that Omicron case rates have surpassed 5x compared to Delta in many states.

So the 91% lower death rate and the 5x higher case would still result in Omicron causing 1/2 (0.09 x 5) as many deaths as Delta.

7 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 11:37:14ID: hsh4cxs

Why can't you people just accept good news?

ID: hshkayc

Good news post, comments section: “Nope, I’m going to pick through every word of this to find the most pessimistic outlook.”

Bad news post, comments section: “Yeah, this is undoubtedly the end of the world. We told you! Lockdown lockdown lockdown!”

ID: hshkc01

It shows how super-not-republican I am to denounce any hint that the pandemic may eventually end.

ID: hshknse

Snark and doom gets those upvotes and engagement.

ID: hshz4hh

Personally I know too many people who are using any scrap of “good news” to justify their overall irresponsible and irrational behavior. I’m glad to hear it probably won’t kill me, but I also know that this news will give my in laws another batch of conspiracy bullshit about vitamin c etc. that I will have to deal with.

ID: hshxv68

I think it's more like "this is good, but if you think it's so good that we can start ignoring Omicron as a threat, you're way off."

Some people want every piece of slightly good news to mean we should drop all restrictions immediately, and that is a dangerous take.

Once we're over the hump of Omicron we will likely be able to reduce restrictions more but right now things are bad.

ID: hshnslz

What does "accepting good news" mean to you?

Because I'd say it is pretty important to note that even though it's significantly less deadly on an individual level, it's so ridiculously infectious that hospitals are being hit harder than at any point during the pandemic.

The last thing we need is people being complacent about it.

ID: hshsulj

Because they’re scared, pitiful people. You would think these people have never been sick in their life to think the world would end if they are fully vaxxed and get omicron. I get that nobody likes being sick but it was probably the least sick I’ve ever felt having a “real” virus. Flu, strep, sinus infections, and even just some general common colds have all been worse for me. I get that it will impact each individual differently, but at the macro level, this is not severe and most people will not become very sick.

If we can just get people to stop running to hospitals for testing that would be great.

ID: hshfi85

Because both sides are death cults of a sort. Don't expect optimism.

ID: hsihe8t

Because it's at odds with studies that controlled for age, vaccination, and prior infection. For example this one from South Africa:

Omicron is only about 25% less deadly than Delta - it's just that vaccines (and even prior infection) work really well at stopping people from dying.

ID: hsiijza

Yes it’s good but it could also cause people to be in Irresponsible. They see it’s mild so they don’t care about being careful anymore. When the truth is hospitals are struggling. I for a text from my doctors (England) saying nobody can go as there’s not enough staff present. If more and more people get it, this just gets worse and worse. It may be mild but if more people catch it the more problems than Delta

8 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 05:24:43ID: hsg9yrh

Awesome news!

10 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 05:21:15ID: hsg9la7

The main worry is it shutting down hospitals not dying (and long covid).

ID: hsh8zx3

Good news (from the article):

When patients are hospitalized with omicron, they have much shorter stays in the hospital, with a median stint of just 36 hours compared to five days with delta.

ID: hshit54

Honest question, and I have an open mind on it. Are hospitals filled to capacity because they were overwhelmed with COVID, or because so much of their staff are in quarantine with COVID?

ID: hsgkn3p
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12 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 04:59:48ID: hsg76zr

That's nice. Now do its odds of causing Long COVID.

ID: hsgm86k

It hasn't been around long enough to assess long covid, although there have been some suggestions that as it's an upper airways infection with different cell entry methods, that the risk, and effects of long covid are much lower.

We likely won't know for sure until the Spring.

ID: hsghw68

It's also a misleading headline because this isn't intrinsic severity: it's severity after accounting for immunity from vaccination and previous infections. There was a Twitter thread by an epidemiologist the other day who did the math and estimated omicron's intrinsic severity is the same as the original strain, which is better than Delta but still hardly great.

However, I believe that study was only looking at hospitalizations rather than mortality. The results of this pre-print seem to line up with that one in terms of hospitalization risk.

Edited; I shouldn't be commenting on Reddit when I'm tired.

ID: hsgb4ho

Can’t really do that right now. It’s still too fresh.

ID: hsh92rf

The odds of long Covid from omicron is considerably lower than from previous strains. Omicron does not attach the lungs but rather the throat. Long Covid is predominately lingering effects caused by damage to the lungs.

ID: hsgers1

Do the odds of a new variant happening because of how many people are getting infected…

ID: hsh1hqc

What is Long COVID?

ID: hshos64

Probably about the same as long flu.

ID: hsgg58d

Right? I'm not "relaxing" until we know more about that. I rather like my job and hobbies as is. Less short term death is definitely good news, though.

ID: hsgeh3r

… how do we study long covid.. without time. :/

ID: hsgvkhe

Do the odds of inconveniencing me more than a day out due to vaccination.

ID: hshjdoi

But do it as a relative risk to getting it with another viral infection

ID: hsgjalm
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ID: hsh959x

Well, you're gonna have to wait a while for that data, because...well, you know...it's called LONG Covid.

13 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 05:57:53ID: hsgdeze

Preprint study, not peer reviewed.

ID: hsghw5s

It is important to point this out; not simply to discredit anything it says outright immediately, but also not to claim any changes to the report later on prove all information moving forward is "fake" or a "hoax."

ID: hsh0w4i

Yup. They really, really need to stop reporting on random non peer reviewed papers on medrxiv as if they are gospel.

ID: hshxo6o

Actually it is the Daily News. Journalists rarely understand and often misquote or misrepresent science publications.

15 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 04:50:58ID: hsg66dv

This doesn't mean much unless getting Omicron prevents getting Delta

ID: hsgci2o

Delta has completely died out in my metro area (100% of samples are omicron now)

even though you do get protection from delta, i dont think it even matters. delta simply cannot complete with omicron - not by a long shot - and will likely die out globally along with every other strain preceding omicron

ID: hsgdfpc

Omicron seems to help the body develop polygenic antibodies which block all known strains decreasing risk of re-infection with other strains. This is likely the beginning of the end finally as it outcompetes other strains as well / start of the beginning of endemic covid omicron.

ID: hsgnp1v

Delta is no more. Omicron has basically eradicated it.

ID: hsh98ig

It most certainly does. Natural immunity is stronger than vaccine immunity by a lot.

ID: hshbg8q

Looks like it does:

17 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 06:01:04ID: hsgdq6e

Getting tired of the death rate being heralded. It's, of course, good news that less people will die.

Let's start talking about and taking serious the long COVID symptoms and how that's going to put a significant burden on our already short circuited healthcare system.

ID: hsgmbf4

It hasn't been around long enough to assess long covid, although there have been some suggestions that as it's an upper airways infection with different cell entry methods, that the risk, and effects of long covid are much lower.

We likely won't know for sure until the Spring.

ID: hsgsx14

and when that doesn't happen, you can worry about the meteor.

ID: hsh2eu5

“People need to worry more, like me.”

Nah. I know 10s of people who have had COVID now, not a one has any of this long COVID business. I’m sure its a problem but not one in personally concerned about to any degree.

ID: hsgjo6w

Maybe try getting vaccinated

ID: hsh9rzn

It won’t be a big problem from Omicron which attacks your throat. Previous versions ended up in the lungs, causing irreparable or at least semi-permanent damage which is the main cause of long Covid.

I’ve had both Alpha and Omicron. Omicron is like a very mild allergy. Not only for me but over a hundred other people I know that’s had it or is currently infected. Alpha was a whole different beast.

ID: hsgvrtv

Totally agree. Hospitalization is already a nightmare to the patient and what is overloading the system. There is too much discussion of lethality.

18 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 04:51:08ID: hsg670j

Two words that scare me more than death or a ventilator (and those are both pretty bad, too.): Long COVID.

ID: hsg9at5

A week after I had a very mild case of covid, my sense of smell and taste got distorted with some foods. It was so disgusting, I couldn’t eat for those few days, I still can’t eat the foods that smelled bad even though they don’t smell anymore, and I still haven’t gotten my appetite back. I read stories of people who have been suffering this long term since they got covid, I have no idea how they live with it, I barely made it a few days.

ID: hsg8s66

Once I started reading the stories of long COVID’s, bless them all, I ran right out and got Vaxxed.

ID: hsgrlie

For some peace of mind, remember Long Covid doesn't always end up being SUPER long. I had long covid both times I caught Covid; each bout was about 2 months long. But then I recovered (at least as far as I am aware) after each 2 month period. It was hella long, but it wasn't life-time debilitating (again - at least as far as I am aware).

ID: hsgdseb

Long COVID scares you more than death. Amazing. That’s enough Reddit for me today.

ID: hsgh598

While I absolutely agree I also know of a person claiming Long COVID who definitely doesn't have it (simply not possible at the time she claims to have gotten it and her reclusive nature, basically she had a lot of conditions that already existed and then claimed it was COVID. She lives in a country with socialized healthcare so she could have been treated earlier, chose not to be, then blamed it all on Long COVID. It disgusts me because it minimizes what other people are going through, and it gives her a platform to pontificate about it.

ID: hshvd7e

This right here.

20 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 06:36:44ID: hsgh1nn

Is this because vaccinated people can also easily contract it and the vaccines lower the chances of death? Is there any information on whether it is or isn't more deadly for un-vaccinated people?

ID: hsh9gks

It’s too early to say but I’d guess that omicron has an extremely low death rate with or without vaccines. Being vaccinated will give you better odds but those odds were already very good with omicron. I’m only speculating because it’s still early but my guess is that Omicron deaths will be lower than 0.01%

ID: hsi2sjg

Idk bout death, but table s4 of the paper shows, for unvaccinated folks, that 1.78 of non omicron cases turn into hospitalization, versus 0.31 percent of omicron cases, which gives some evidence that it's less severe for non vaccinated folks. Which would make it 83.6 percent less likely to hospitalize you. Though disclaimer, not a scientist, so I could be misreading it.

Edit: hmmm, though now that I think of it, if people got disproportionately vaccinated by age, that would also skew the results. Eg, if more old people got vaccinated between Delta and omicron, then omicron unvaccinated people are going to be younger, making them more resilient than then delta folks... :/

Guess we need a table controlling for both age and vaccination status... But there might not be enough sample size to do that kind of analysis yet...

ID: hsi0bwr

That question was asked in the comments on medrxiv. Another comment pointed out that there is a full tabulation of demographics including vaccination status.

I can barely read it but I do not think the papers summary is an accurate representation of the full sample, and the Daily News article is even less accurate.

23 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 04:49:42ID: hsg60vx

How's it compare to the original?

And how much more contagious is it? Haven't seen anyone slap an r0 value on it. Which makes me think it's really, really bad

ID: hsga9or

I've heard a range of 7 to 10. It's pretty aggressive.

24 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 06:36:24ID: hsgh0kj

Does anyone have any information on whether this is the result of more people being vaccinated + now boosted than with the entirety of Delta? Or some combination of Omicron being less lethal and more people being vaccinated + boosted?

ID: hsgkdf1

Last I heard, omicron only has 10% lower rate of hospitalization compared to delta for the immunonaive.

So the lions share of the lower severity seems to come from vaccines and previous infections.

ID: hshecjg

It’s not. Essentially there haven’t been enough more people vaccinated suddenly to change the trend in death. As cases rise drastically, deaths rise slightly but not at a proportion consistent with delta.

25 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 14:26:43ID: hshmq4l

They really need to stop making big headline claims when it’s not even peer reviewed. My 30yo friend in much better physical shape than myself caught it after New Years, was extremely sick for almost a week. Still has a cough and unable to get access to testing. They were vaxxed and boosted.

Just because bullshit articles like this claim you’re less likely to die and it’s “mild” doesn’t mean Covid won’t wipe the floor with you. Stay safe everyone.

ID: hsieba3

That is also true for influenza.

26 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 07:46:03ID: hsgmvuh

This is for the Vaxxed and boosted people the Unaxxed still have about the same chance of dying at most it might be like 12% less.

ID: hsgw60z

The study included unvaxxed and found a 60% lower chance for symptomatic hospitalization with Omicron for that subgroup (

)

27 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 13:26:45ID: hshf600

Where are all those Reddit doctors making fun of people saying it’s mild?

ID: hsi74u7

It's not mild for everyone. And there are a lot of people it is bad for.

28 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 10:20:13ID: hsgydq5

As an unvaccinated individual in a very low risk category, my chances of being hospitalized were roughly 2%. With Omicron that brings it down to 0.5%. Chance of death approaching 0%.

ID: hshatjo

If you’re under 70 and not obese your chances are significantly lower than that. Death is probably around 0.0001%

29 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 10:23:56ID: hsgynuc

It also seems to have passed its peak on the east coast and southeast.

30 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 05:00:12ID: hsg78on
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ID: hsg9txw

AaaaandDOWNVOTED

31 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 08:11:40ID: hsgovna

According to the “new California study” referenced but not linked in this article, double and triple (boosted) vaccinated Omicron cases had a slightly higher incidence rate of symptomatic hospitalization than unvaccinated Omicron cases.

Scroll down to Table S4. Go down to All Cases. Go to Vaccination. Under Cumulative Events Over Observed Follow-Up, the second column refers to Omicron cases (SGTF).

Among the unvaccinated the rate of symptomatic hospitalization was 3.1 per 1000 cases.

The rate of symptomatic hospitalization for the double vaccinated was 3.4 per 1000 cases.

And for the boosted the rate was 4.8 per 1000 cases.

This data seems to suggest that vaccines and boosters may not be effective at preventing symptomatic hospitalization for those infected with Omicron (though the rate of symptomatic hospitalization is still very low here regardless of vaccination status).

ID: hshqeai

Unvaccinated people that are going out in public probably skew younger and healthier, while boosted people probably skew older and more at risk

ID: hshal21

My guess is that it will turn out being the same if you’re vaccinated or not for omicron. Vaccines appear to have no effect on omicron.

32 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 05:43:39ID: hsgbzdy

Not sure what the mortality rate was for Delta with Unvax, Vax, Boosted. Also compared to the Alpha variant.

35 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 11:38:05ID: hsh4fkm

Hey how many masks is she wearing when she delivers this news?

37 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 14:20:57ID: hshlxxd

My son is an EMT, 20, young and healthy, vaccinated and boosted. It hit him like a bag of bricks. Fever cough dizzy. He was on a lot of covid calls so I think viral load really does matter.

40 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 12:23:12ID: hsh8fjc

It still spreads 20x faster, so it's overall twice as bad.

41 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 08:28:02ID: hsgq4ha

Stupid question...

This study says omicron is 91% less likely to kill you and 74% less likely to put you in the ICU than Delta.

But

says a Canadian study found Delta's chances of death were 133% higher compared to the original strain, while the probability of ICU admission increased by 235%.

Is it possible to do a mathematical calculation with these numbers to determine a comparison between Omicron and the original variant? I'm assuming it's not just a matter of subtracting.

ID: hsguvrs

Deaths: (1+1.33) * (1-0.91) = 0.21ICU: (1+2.35) * (1-0.74) = 0.87

So about 79% less deadly and and 13% less likely to put you in ICU, if you quoted the stats right and I did the math corrextly

42 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 13:02:19ID: hshceah

I am still unsure if I had Omicron, used to have to do rapid tests to get into the gym. Was fully vaxxed and didnt go out much, one of the tests I did seemingly didnt work so I threw it in my bag and did another one that quickly turned clearly negative. Two or three weeks later I clean my bag and find the test from back then turned positive (altough not clearly but a faint second line but still). That was around the time I got boostered, maybe that explains why I had rougher symptoms from the vaccination if I had Omicron at the time. Or maybe the test turned faintly positive because I did it around the time I got boostered.

44 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 14:06:37ID: hshk2le

That's great but still has the unique trait of the original virus, unpredictability. My friend got it from her dad. Both vaccinated. Dad had mild to nothing symptoms. My friend had the worst cold/flu symptoms of her entire life. Luckily she has recovered but she says she is terrified of it now.

45 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 15:00:31ID: hshrf7l

I am absolutely delighted to find that out. When I got Coronavirus, last June, it was completely unexpected. A friend of mine told me we had both gotten the original strain: the one directly from China, that the prime minister and President Trump also got. It was not exactly fun!

46 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 15:22:55ID: hshuqjn

I’m glad to hear this news, but seriously I’m more worried about dying for lack of access to care than I am about dying of COVID ( at this point ).That’s what motivates me to keep the precautions up.

47 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 15:43:07ID: hshxu1y

incredible!

48 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 15:49:12ID: hshysa0

Give it about an hour so another article can popUp about how bad it can be

50 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 15:56:07ID: hshzw8n

Delta sucked even being vaccinated! Caught this one last week, nothing more then a cold.

51 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 16:01:36ID: hsi0rk3

That’s great news but the shit seems so contagious if you think about you’ll test positive

52 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 16:19:44ID: hsi3mbz

Seems about right, I was looking at case numbers and death numbers, and though there's a lag and not good strain allocation, just looking at the growth in one segment minus the previous trend, and the lack of growth in the other lead to a ratio reduction of 75-80%, so with more precise attribution modeling this seems fairly accurate.

That being said, that's immediate mortality, that doesn't speak to the long term mortality which won't be directly attributed. For example, Cedar Sinai released a paper recently showing of 177 covid confirmed cases, 6 months out from infection, 177 had increased levels of auto-antibodies. Autoantibodies cause the body to attack itself in what we call autoimmune disease like autoimmune hepatitis, lupus, rhumatoid arthritis, etc

Also there's 17,200,000+ long covid cases in America where they have increased clotting factors at minimum 6 months after recovery, which will lead to clot related illnesses like PE and stroke massively increasing over time.

54 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 17:08:30ID: hsibhz1

I just saw a chart here on reddit that has hospitalizations at its highest point since the beginning of this pandemic. I wondering whether or not this percentage of “chance of death” is based on incomplete information (knowing that death rate lags a couple weeks) or that we’re just not aware of some long term effects of this variant?

55 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 17:15:55ID: hsicpao

And yet we treat it like it’s the same…

56 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 17:46:02ID: hsihnj9

I had it early in the wave and, for me (triple vaxxed w/ 2 X pfizer, 1 X moderna), it was the mildest cold I may have ever had in my life. Annoying congestion, a very mild cough that formed on the third day. Congestion went away entirely on the 4th day and the cough lingered for about 10 days even though I felt completely fine after day 5. I didn't even skip a workout through any of this.

I realize that it'll be different for everyone, but just want to leave my experience so that you don't only see the worst instances.

57 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 17:58:00ID: hsijnaw

hmmmmm so why is there a 9/11 a day of deaths happening right now then? doesn't add up, not even with the increased transmissability.

58 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 18:03:16ID: hsiki92

AKA the plot of The Andromeda Syndrome

59 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 09:51:45ID: hsgwa07

But if the cases are 91 times bigger?

60 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 12:09:04ID: hsh74g3

However the confidence interval on that estimate is huge... From 25%-99% less deadly.

Rates of ICU admission and mortality after an outpatient positive test were 0.26 (0.10-0.73) and 0.09 (0.01-0.75) fold as high among cases with Omicron variant infection as compared to cases with Delta variant infection

61 :Anonymous2022/01/13(Thu) 15:43:34ID: hshxwn0

They said the same thing about Delta

引用元:https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s2qtiy/omicron_has_a_91_lower_chance_of_death_than_delta/

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